India, home to over 1.46 billion people in 2025, has crossed a historic demographic milestone: the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 children per woman, slipping below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time. While urban India has long been below replacement, the more striking development is that rural India has now converged at 2.1, underscoring a structural transformation in the nation’s population dynamics.
This shift reflects decades of progress in healthcare, education, and family planning. It marks a transition from conversations around controlling population growth to those around managing demographic stability, and in the long term, even decline.
The replacement rate of 2.1 ensures a stable population size. Below this level, populations eventually decline. India’s longterm shift is evident: TFR has fallen dramatically from 5.2 in 1971 to 1.9 in 2023. Supporting this, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) fell to 18.4 births per 1,000 people in 2023 (20.3 in rural areas, 14.9 in urban). Births are increasingly concentrated at younger ages, yet age-specific fertility rates show a shift, declining fertility in the 15–29 cohort, with rising contributions from women aged 30–49.
Why rural fertility is declining
The reduction of rural fertility is the outcome of interconnected forces reshaping family planning decisions. Improved healthcare and rising child survival rates have been central. Today, over 87 per cent of rural births take place in hospitals or health centers, and infant mortality has fallen to 29 deaths per 1,000 live births, compared to 129 in 1971. With more children surviving, the traditional need for larger families has diminished.
Government interventions have reinforced this trend. Programs such as Mission Parivar Vikas, targeted at 146 high-fertility districts, have expanded access to contraceptives, counseling, and awareness around child spacing. At the grassroots level, ASHAs (Accredited Social Health Activists) have delivered contraceptives and pregnancy kits directly to households while offering culturally sensitive guidance, making family planning more acceptable and sustainable.
Education, particularly among women, has accelerated this demographic transition. Fertility is closely tied to education levels: in 2023, the TFR stood at 3.3 for illiterate women versus 1.6 for graduates and above. While literacy gaps persist 56.8 per cent for rural women versus 72.3 per cent for men, greater female participation in education and decisionmaking has led to smaller, better-spaced families.
Economic realities have added another dimension. Rising costs of healthcare, education, and child-rearing are increasingly felt even in rural areas, prompting families to prioritise quality over quantity. Parents now prefer to invest in fewer children to secure better outcomes, reflecting both economic pragmatism and shifting aspirations.
Looking ahead: Challenges and opportunities
The fall in fertility rates presents both opportunities and challenges. On the positive side, smaller family sizes allow households to devote more attention and resources to each child, improving nutrition, healthcare, and education outcomes. This shift also eases pressure on essential resources such as food, water, and land, while accelerating improvements in maternal and child health.
At the same time, new challenges are emerging. Nearly 10 per cent of India’s population is now over 60, up from 8.6 per cent a decade ago. With fewer young people entering the workforce, supporting the elderly will place pressure on healthcare systems, social security, and traditional familybased care. Rural industries, particularly agriculture, may face labor shortages as family sizes shrink and migration rises.
The path forward
India’s success in bringing rural fertility down to replacement level is a milestone, but the real challenge lies in converting demographic stability into a dividend. Policymakers must act on several fronts: building robust elder care systems to manage the rising dependency burden, sustaining investments in women’s education and healthcare, and creating sustainable, non-agricultural job opportunities in rural areas. Bridging regional disparities is equally critical, as high-fertility districts in northern and eastern India still lag behind.
The drop to a TFR of 2.1 is not just a number, it marks the threshold of a new demographic reality. How India manages this transition, balancing the opportunities of smaller families with the pressures of aging and inequality, will shape the nation’s economic and social trajectory for decades to come.